COVID-19 Analysis & Files 7/21/20
Arizona's June-July spike of COVID-19 cases appears to be receding. Available hospital capacity is improving, without reaching into surge capacity. Arizona is uncovering fewer cases, but has also hit a testing bottleneck in the past couple week. Gov Ducey has announced his intention to make about 1 million tests available through the end of August, so it is possible that case counts may continue to climb.
The more concerning news appears to be the recent death figures. Much of the reporting here is misleading. Much of this continues to stem from the continual conflation of deaths by date of reporting and deaths by date of occurrence. While Arizona did report 134 deaths today, only 74 of those deaths occurred within the past ten days. The most distant occurred on March 23rd. As of today, the deadliest day from the pandemic is 7/7/2020, with 73 deaths, per the Arizona Dept of Health Services. Given the recent slowdown in cases, I am hopeful that death counts will decline analogously over the next two weeks.
AZ Hospital Capacity:
AZDHS Reported Inpatient Bed Utilization vs Utilization with Surge Capacity:
AZDHS Reported ICU Bed Utilization vs Utilization with Surge Capacity: